State of the Primary, February 2012

Fresh off of Saturday's Nevada caucus (which my esteemed compatriot has already discussed), it's high time to evaluate the remaining candidates, their relative statuses within the Republican Primary to date, and, most poignantly, what lies ahead for their candidacies.

Here's my take, in order of delegates earned to date:

• Mitt Romney (81 Delegates)

Let's face it.  Massachusetts' former governor has all-but secured his position as this year's Republican nominee.  While Newt Gingrich may have dominated South Carolina, and a retrospective recount squeezed him out of first place in Iowa by a few votes, his strong showings in New Hampshire, Florida and Nevada have given him a substantial lead and, more importantly, all of the momentum.

It is interesting to note that Romney's core supporters have mostly come from the "Whoever can beat Obama" demographic, which speaks volumes about what is most important to a vast majority of conservative voters in 2012.

•  Newt Gingrich (27 Delegates)

The former Speaker of the House had a sweeping victory in South Carolina, but has been a dwindling second ever since.  With supporters comprised mainly of the "Whoever can beat Obama, but isn't Mitt Romney" demographic, it's hard to see a path to nomination for Newt, though it's certainly far from impossible.  Probably the best debater we've seen in this election cycle, look for Gingrich to continue his well-verbalized but mostly insubstantial monologues at least until March.

• Rick Santorum (16 Delegates) 

 Perhaps the biggest surprise of Iowa, Rick "Santorum" Santorum had hoped to ride that momentum straight through to the Convention.  Unfortunately, after spending all of his time in Iowa (and most of his money) eeking out that victory, the former Pennsylvania Senator has very little to justify his continued presence in this race.  I would expect him to drop out within the week, barring surprise showings in Colorado or Minnesota.

• Ron Paul (6 Delegates) 

 If you've been paying attention, or even if you've just skimmed an article or two, you've probably surmised that we here at TPGTFS have more than a bit of sympathy for the Texas Congressman.  Supporters, yes, but realists all the same.  Having yet to finish first in any Caucus or Primary election, the "Intellectual Godfather of the Tea Party Movement" is not going to be the nominee.

The good doctor, however, may not define this as a defeat.  Let's briefly go over a few statistics so far:

1. Ron Paul has received almost double the amount of campaign contributions from active military personnel than all the candidates combined, including Barack Obama.
2. Ron Paul has absolutely dominated the youth vote in every state so far.
3.  In Nevada, Ron Paul garnered 42% of voters who said that "true conservatism" was the most important factor behind their choice.  Compare this to Gingrich at 30% AND Santorum at 24%, both of whom have billed themselves as the "true conservative" Romney alternative.

 These stats show the necessity of Dr. Paul's presence in the Republican party.  To discount him is to throw away a large chunk of these three demographics, all of whom will be vital to next year's general election against Obama.  It is very likely that Paul is positioning himself as an asset to the eventual nominee, and that the eventual nominee will be hard pressed to ignore him.  (Notice how Paul and Romney rarely go after each other, and indeed have been known to exchange compliments?)

If this is indeed the case, an intelligent Republican presidential candidate would do well to accommodate Paul and his supporters, thus changing the dialog of the election and pushing the Republican Party back toward its libertarian roots.  Especially if this candidate is Mitt Romney, who has virtually no die-hard loyalty within his fan base, Republicans will need the kind of support given to Ron Paul, specifically from the demographics that Paul has dominated.

It would be difficult for Ron Paul to call this a defeat.